North Carolina sits alongside the “purple bloc” — the “seven or eight states that seem to define each presidential election” because they are neither reliably Republican (red) nor Democratic (blue), he added. And despite popular opinion to the contrary, the state’s purple hue is not new.

 

“People ask me how North Carolina became purple all of a sudden,” he reported. “We’ve been a purple state for quite some time. We were overwhelmingly a Democratic state in the 20th century and early 21st century, but we’ve been electing Republicans over 100 years.”

 

Woodard cited multiple examples of the state’s vacillation between Republican and Democratic influence, mixing red and blue to produce purple political influence.

 

For example, during the 1960 election cycle, Terry Sanford, the Democratic candidate for governor, “was pretty liberal and was one of the few Southern Democrats to endorse John Kennedy,” Woodard said. “This endorsement, radical at the time, paid off in many ways (including funding and tenants for Research Triangle Park) and shaped the North Carolina we know today.”

 

A dozen years later, the 1972 elections demonstrated deep purple sentiment. Republican presidential candidate Richard Nixon won a landslide victory in the state, progressive Democrat Jim Hunt won the lieutenant governor’s election, and arch-conservative Republican Jesse Helms won the race for Senate.

 

“We’ve always been this mixed bag,” Woodard described. “We’re sort of like Brunswick stew; you throw a lot of stuff in the pot and see what cooks up.”

 

Turning toward a topic that involves many Courtyards at Southpoint residents, he said, “The trends in North Carolina we’re facing now make us … interesting.”

 

Population growth is the dominant feature of those trends, he noted. In 1976, Jim Hunt ran for governor “to serve four and a half million North Carolinians.” By 2020, the state’s population swelled to 10,439,000, and it grew by 5.8%, to almost 11.4 million today.

 

“We’re No. 3 in growth rate, behind only Texas and Florida,” he said. North Carolina probably will pass Georgia this year, to become the nation’s eighth-most-populous state. And it may pass Ohio and Illinois as well, he added. By 2040, the state probably will surpass Pennsylvania to become the fifth-largest state.

 

“That’s the kind of growth that continues to change the dynamics that shape us as a state,” he said.

 

The reasons newcomers arrive in North Carolina mirror factors that have shaped Courtyards at Southpoint, Woodard observed, noting the top three “can be kind of related.”

 

The main reason people move to North Carolina is to live closer to family, a factor cited by 27.2% of arrivals. “People want to be closer to their children and grandchildren,” he said.

 

“And your kids came here because they got jobs here,” he added, noting work, cited by 24.8% of newcomers, was the No. 2 reason for moving to the state.

 

Retirement ranks third in attracting new residents — a factor named by 19.7% of arrivals, Woodard told the group. “So, you retired here to be near the kids who came here to work years ago.”

 

Other demographic variables link Courtyards at Southpoint and the state’s population growth, he said. Measured by age, the plurality of newcomers — 34% of the total — are 65 or older. And of that group, 50% have a household income of $150,000 or more, while another 22% have a household income of at least $100,000.

 

This means new North Carolinians tend to be more financially well-off than the rest of the state, he said. The state’s average household income is $97,403, and the median household income is $69,904.

 

“People moving here are older and wealthier than the average North Carolinian,” he said.

 

Demographers estimate North Carolina’s population will reach 14 million by 2050, he said, adding, “Due to the aging population and lower birth rates, growth will be caused by net migration.”

 

The racial and ethnic composition of the state will shift across the coming decades, Woodard said. The predicted changes in percentage of overall population for six groups from 2024 to 2050 will be:

• White — from 58.4% to 52%

• Black — from 22.1% to 23%

• Latino — from 11.4% to 14%

• Asian-American and Pacific Islander — from 3.9% to 6%

• Native Indian/Indigenous — from 1.6% to 2%

• Heritage of two races — from 2.6% to 3%

 

North Carolina’s population and demographic changes point toward political tension, he said. “In 2032, we’re expected to get another congressional district and electoral vote. If you thought we had a big fight over the last congressional redistricting, just wait until we have one more seat up for grabs.”

 

Woodard showed a slide of the pearly white cast of The Andy Griffith Show — Andy, Aunt Bea, Opie and Barnie — which dominated U.S. television in the 1960s. “That’s what people thought North Carolina was like,” he said. “The fact is, as much as we love Andy, we ain’t that state anymore. We’ve changed a great deal.”

 

Returning to the political dynamics of North Carolina, Woodard reported unaffiliated voters comprise the largest political bloc in the state. Ranked according to size, the number of voters who comprise those five groups are:

• Unaffiliated — 3,160,539

• Republican — 2,329,901

• Democratic — 2,326,568

• Libertarian — 46,665

• Green — 4,952

 

The percentage of North Carolina voters who were unaffiliated boomed from less than 5% in 1977 to 40% in 2022, he said. The numbers began to surge when the Republican Party opened its primary to unaffiliated voters in 1988 and the Democratic Party opened its primary in 1996.

 

“This was very important, because it prompted more voters to be unaffiliated,” he said. “This makes a huge difference in how North Carolinians vote, how we act, how we react and how candidates campaign.”

 

Unaffiliated voters mirror the state’s racial and ethnic diversity, he said. With an average age of 46, they’re younger but only slightly younger than Republicans (54) and Democrats (53). They’re evenly distributed across the state’s 100 counties, comprising a plurality in 25 counties. And they are more likely to have migrated to the state relatively recently than to be natives or long-term residents.

 

Woodard noted among all unaffiliated voters, 54% are “shadow partisans,” with 27% consistently voting in the Republican primary and 27% regularly voting in the Democratic primary. That leaves 46% as “floaters.”

 

Unaffiliated does not mean undecided, he said. But he reported the unmoored “floaters” feel no institutional constraint to keep them from “drifting with the political tides,” and they tend to vote in the most competitive primary.

 

The battle for winning North Carolina political elections focuses on the “floaters,” he said. They make up 46% of 40% of all voters, and the greatest amount of political advertising dollars are spent to get their votes.

 

“We’re fighting over that smaller universe of voters,” who can swing the results of an election, Woodard conceded.

 

Voters should be aware of the context in which they cast their ballots, he said.

 

“As you go to the polls and vote, think about North Carolina and what’s happening in our state,” he urged. “We’re going to have more people, who will be older and more diverse. We will have tension between old and new, and the rural-urban divide will widen. …

 

“My goal is to de-mystify politics. I’m optimistic about our state, our region and the country. But democracy is a participatory endeavor. Don’t sit on the sidelines.”

 

He called on participants to volunteer — to register voters and to work the polls.

 

“If we lose our democracy, it’s on us,” he stressed.